Research

Current Working Papers

Forecasting the Price of Shelter: The Importance of the Market-Shelter Gap

When the Rest of the World Sneezes, Who Catches Cold? The Size and Nature of Non-Fed Central Bank Spillovers 

Looking Beyond the Fed: Do Central Banks Cause Information Effects? 

The Role of Industrial Composition in Driving the Frequency of Price Change (with Vaishali Garga)

The Inflation Target and the Equilibrium Real Rate

Works In Progress

Does Seasonal Adjustment Obscure Early Signs of Recession? (with Emily Eisner, Emi Nakamura, Jón Steinsson)

Research Publications

Debt, Deficits, and Interest Rates
Economica (2024); local pdf copy

Excess Stimulus and Monetary Policy
Economics Bulletin (2023); local pdf copy (including online appendices); code

Consumption Spending and Inequality during the Covid-19 Pandemic (with Vaishali Garga and Justin Rohan)
Covid Economics (2021); local pdf copy; SSRN version

Policy Publications

A Faster Convergence of Shelter Prices and Market Rent: Implications for Inflation
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Current Policy Perspective (2024); local pdf copy; SSRN version
Coverage: American Banker; Axios; Financial Times; Monetary Policy Report to Congress

The Distribution of Sectoral Price Changes and Recent Inflation Developments (with Vaishali Garga, Giovanni P. Olivei, and Viacheslav Sheremirov)
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Current Policy Perspective (2023); local pdf copy; SSRN version
Coverage: NAHB 

What Is Driving Inflation?---Beyond The Usual Culprits? (with Vaishali Garga)
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Current Policy Perspective (2023); local pdf copy (main); local pdf copy (appendix)

Forecasting CPI Shelter under Falling Market-Rent Growth (with John O'Shea)
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Current Policy Perspective (2023); local pdf copy; SSRN version

Monetary Policy and Stock Prices
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Current Policy Perspective (2022); local pdf copy; SSRN version  

Debt, Deficits, and Interest Rates
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Current Policy Perspective (2021); local pdf copy; SSRN version

Consumption Heterogeneity by Occupation: Understanding the Impact of Occupation on Personal Consumption during the COVID-19 Pandemic (with  Vaishali Garga and Justin Rohan)
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Working Papers (2020); local pdf copy; SSRN version